Livyi Bereh 2-3 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karpaty at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Karpaty travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 May 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karpaty — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Livyi Bereh) versus 1.60 (Karpaty). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Livyi Bereh, 1 for Karpaty and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Karpaty winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Livyi Bereh trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Karpaty trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 19% | Karpaty 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 27% | Karpaty 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.05 xG and Karpaty 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.716 / defence 1.114 | Karpaty attack 0.947 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.011. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Livyi Bereh games / 26 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 35% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 36%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Karpaty 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 30% | Karpaty 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 35% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.05 / Karpaty 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.716 / def 1.114 | Karpaty attack 0.947 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Karpaty xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Livyi Bereh 2 - 3 Karpaty.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 35% chance of winning, Karpaty a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Karpaty?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 0 | Karpaty 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Karpaty in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Karpaty (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Karpaty's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.35
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.11
1.07
Karpaty xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.07 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 5D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Karpaty have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karpaty's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Karpaty in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Karpaty away?
Karpaty's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 0.92 PPG; Karpaty away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Karpaty in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Karpaty won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Livyi Bereh's record when hosting Karpaty specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
2
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Karpaty?
From 3 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Karpaty have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Livyi Bereh 1-1 Karpaty.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 23% BTTS, Karpaty 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Livyi Bereh and 46% for Karpaty.
On the defensive side: Karpaty in 31%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 62% of games; Karpaty in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 46% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 46% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Karpaty tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karpaty edge out Livyi Bereh 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Livyi Bereh 2-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.05 xG and Karpaty 1.07 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Karpaty attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 35% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 36%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 27%, Karpaty 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Karpaty's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.