Kudrivka 1-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kudrivka take on Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vorskla Poltava make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Kudrivka in Premier League, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.83 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.770 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.009. Data: 0 Kudrivka games / 60 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 29% | Draw 38% | Vorskla Poltava 33%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Vorskla Poltava 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Kudrivka's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 29% | Draw 38% | Vorskla Poltava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Kudrivka 0.83 / Vorskla Poltava 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.770 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Vorskla Poltava xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 29 May 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Kudrivka 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 29% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Vorskla Poltava away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 0.85x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.77x) against Kudrivka's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
38%
2.64
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
1.72
0.89
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 16.0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Kudrivka and 0.89 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Pre-Season
Vorskla Poltava
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kudrivka.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Kudrivka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Kudrivka 1-2 at Obolon Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.83 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 29% | Draw 38% | Vorskla Poltava 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.