Uthai Thani 1-4 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Uthai Thani welcome Ayutthaya FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 0.90 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.90 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.867 / defence 0.884 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.835 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.321. Ayutthaya FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Uthai Thani games / 2 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 58% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Ayutthaya FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 58% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Uthai Thani 1.90 / Ayutthaya FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.867 / def 0.884 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.835 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ayutthaya FC xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Uthai Thani 1 - 4 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 58% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.33
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.87
0.97
Ayutthaya FC xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
3%
36.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.97 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 0.50 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Uthai Thani.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Uthai Thani's games and 100% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Uthai Thani's matches and 100% of Ayutthaya FC's.
Do Uthai Thani and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ayutthaya FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Uthai Thani 1-4 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.90 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 58% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 18%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 50%, Ayutthaya FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 0.50 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ayutthaya FC scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.