Trat FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trat FC face Sukhothai FC.

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Match Analysis

Trat FC host Sukhothai FC at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Trat FC have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Trat FC have posted 3W 3D 3L from their last 9 home games — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sukhothai FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Trat FC) versus 1.40 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Trat FC's games and 70% of Sukhothai FC's (from Trat FC's last 9 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Trat FC, 0 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Trat FC 0–0 Sukhothai FC — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Trat FC in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 60% and Sukhothai FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 73% | Sukhothai FC 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.53 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.882 / defence 1.212 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.957 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.340. Trat FC's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sukhothai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Trat FC's last 15 games and Sukhothai FC's last 45.

Result probabilities: Trat FC 36% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.75 | Draw 3.83 | Sukhothai FC 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trat FC's last 9 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trat FC 67% (last 9 home games) | Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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