Chiangrai United 3-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Trat FC.

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Analysis & Preview

Trat FC travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chiangrai United stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Trat FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Trat FC's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 1D 4L (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chiangrai United 0.90 PPG, Trat FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Chiangrai United have won 0, Trat FC 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Chiangrai United 0–0 Trat FC — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Chiangrai United trading profile (last 16 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Trat FC trading profile (last 16 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 62% and Trat FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 50% | Trat FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.95 xG and Trat FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.858 / defence 0.880 | Trat FC attack 0.833 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.318. Trat FC's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chiangrai United's projected output up. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 46 games and Trat FC's last 16.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 25% | Trat FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.70 | Draw 4.06 | Trat FC 6.02. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Trat FC's last 6 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 home games) | Trat FC 50% (last 6 away games).

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