Sukhothai FC 0-3 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sukhothai FC at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sukhothai FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sukhothai FC's games and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's (from Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sukhothai FC, 2 for Lamphun Warrior and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Sukhothai FC 2–1 Lamphun Warrior — a Sukhothai FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 54% | Lamphun Warrior 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.61 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.936 / defence 0.990 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.953 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.157. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 59 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 59.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 25%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.07 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 4.06. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sukhothai FC 1.61 / Lamphun Warrior 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.936 / def 0.990 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.953 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lamphun Warrior xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior FAQs
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 3 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 30) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 48% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sukhothai FC's last 59 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.70
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.09
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.09 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 15D 27L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 17W 17D 25L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.12 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 6D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 9D 16L from their last 29 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.17 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
Sukhothai FC (Home) vs Lamphun Warrior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sukhothai FC
Current Season
Lamphun Warrior
Current Season
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Form FAQs
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won Sukhothai FC 4-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
6
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 45%, Lamphun Warrior 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sukhothai FC) and 45% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 41% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 45% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 48% of Lamphun Warrior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 0-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.61 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.09 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 25%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 54%, Lamphun Warrior 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.