Ratchaburi 3-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 37%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 4W 1D 5L at Dragon Solar Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Ratchaburi's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 2 for Prachuap and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 48% versus Prachuap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 34% | Prachuap 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.17 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.854 / defence 1.110 | Prachuap attack 0.844 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.157. Data: 59 Ratchaburi games / 59 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 32%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Prachuap 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Prachuap 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Ratchaburi 1.17 / Prachuap 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.854 / def 1.110 | Prachuap attack 0.844 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Prachuap xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Ratchaburi 3 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 37% chance of winning, Prachuap a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 2W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.85x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.21
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.26
1.08
Prachuap xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.08 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 17D 22L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (17W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.31 PPG, Prachuap on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 12W 9D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (3W 11D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.31 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Current Season
Prachuap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.55 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 59%, Prachuap 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ratchaburi) and 52% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Ratchaburi's games and 66% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 52% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Prachuap 3-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.17 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Prachuap attack 0.84 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 32%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 34%, Prachuap 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.31 PPG, Prachuap 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.