Rayong FC 2-3 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rayong FC face Lamphun Warrior.

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Analysis & Preview

Lamphun Warrior travel to WHA Rayong Stadium to take on Rayong FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Monday 17 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Rayong FC have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Rayong FC at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lamphun Warrior — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rayong FC 1.40 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Rayong FC 1–4 Lamphun Warrior — a Lamphun Warrior win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Rayong FC trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Lamphun Warrior trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 67% versus Lamphun Warrior 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 62% | Lamphun Warrior 43%). Note also that Lamphun Warrior surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Rayong FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.37 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.987 / defence 1.306 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.900 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.190. Rayong FC's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 21 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 51.

Result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.78 | Draw 3.71 | Lamphun Warrior 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rayong FC's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 50% (last 10 away games).

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