Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Chiangrai United.

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Fixture Analysis

Lamphun Warrior welcome Chiangrai United to Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Lamphun Warrior's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.60 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Chiangrai United 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Chiangrai United — a Chiangrai United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Chiangrai United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 58% | Chiangrai United 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.88 xG and Chiangrai United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.862 / defence 1.026 | Chiangrai United attack 0.726 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.202. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamphun Warrior's projected output up. Chiangrai United's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 52 games and Chiangrai United's last 52.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.67 | Draw 4.28 | Chiangrai United 5.95. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 40% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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