Ratchaburi 2-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Khon Kaen United.

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Analysis

Khon Kaen United make the trip to Ratchaburi Stadium to face Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

Ratchaburi (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 4D 1L at Ratchaburi Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Ratchaburi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Khon Kaen United have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Khon Kaen United's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Ratchaburi have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Khon Kaen United managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.

The historical record gives Ratchaburi a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Khon Kaen United half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 49% versus Khon Kaen United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 51% | Khon Kaen United 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.13 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.085 / defence 1.003 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.782 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.143. Data: 43 Ratchaburi games / 43 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 12%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Khon Kaen United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 60% | Khon Kaen United 40%.

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