Prachuap 0-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 7D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 0.50 PPG clear of Prachuap in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 54% and Port FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 46% | Port FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.72 xG and Port FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.100 / defence 0.674 | Port FC attack 1.305 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.175. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Prachuap games / 37 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 31% | Port FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Port FC 5.26. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 30% | Port FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 31% | Port FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Prachuap 1.72 / Port FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.100 / def 0.674 | Port FC attack 1.305 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Port FC xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Port FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Prachuap 0 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Port FC part of?
Prachuap vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 50% chance of winning, Port FC a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Prachuap and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 2 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.10) and Port FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.30x) against Prachuap's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.26
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.75
1.03
Port FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.03 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 11W 11D 15L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC's form line: 20W 11D 6L from 37 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 7W 9D 2L from 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.41 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 73%.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Port FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.00 PPG; Port FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Prachuap, 83% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Prachuap and 72% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Prachuap's games and 83% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Prachuap's matches and 72% of Port FC's.
Do Prachuap and Port FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Port FC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Prachuap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Port FC finished level at 0-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.72 xG and Port FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Port FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.10 / defence 0.67 against Port FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 50% | Draw 31% | Port FC 19%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Port FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.