Uthai Thani 3-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Uthai Thani host Chiangrai United at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 0.90 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 1 for Chiangrai United and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 60% versus Chiangrai United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 51% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.95 xG and Chiangrai United 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.966 / defence 1.037 | Chiangrai United attack 0.846 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.148. Data: 37 Uthai Thani games / 35 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 16%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 80% | Chiangrai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Uthai Thani 1.95 / Chiangrai United 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.966 / def 1.037 | Chiangrai United attack 0.846 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Chiangrai United xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Uthai Thani 3 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 56% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.60
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.96
1.01
Chiangrai United xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
44.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.01 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 11D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (9W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.26 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 5W 7D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.00 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Chiangrai United away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.38 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 62%, Chiangrai United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Uthai Thani) and 56% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 56% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 56% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Chiangrai United 3-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.95 xG and Chiangrai United 1.01 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 56% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 16%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 51%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.26 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.