Prachuap 1-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Prachuap host Nakhon Pathom at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Prachuap) versus 1.30 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Prachuap, 0 for Nakhon Pathom and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Nakhon Pathom 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 46% | Nakhon Pathom 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.60 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.016 / defence 0.919 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.847 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.204. Data: 52 Prachuap games / 52 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 52% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 21%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Pathom 4.76. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Nakhon Pathom 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 52% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Prachuap 1.60 / Nakhon Pathom 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.016 / def 0.919 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.847 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Nakhon Pathom xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 52% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 3 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.78
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.54
0.94
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.94 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap's recent record stands at 16W 17D 19L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 25L across 52 games — 0.98 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.25 PPG, Nakhon Pathom on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Pathom's away record stands at 4W 8D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.12 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 16W 17D 19L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 12W 15D 25L in their last 52 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Prachuap's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.88 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Prachuap
3
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Prachuap 1-0 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 54%, Nakhon Pathom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Prachuap) and 62% (Nakhon Pathom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Nakhon Pathom in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Prachuap's games and 62% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Prachuap's matches and 62% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Prachuap and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Nakhon Pathom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nakhon Pathom 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.60 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Pathom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 52% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 21%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Nakhon Pathom 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.25 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.