Port FC 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Port FC welcome Uthai Thani to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.10 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port FC, 0 for Uthai Thani and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 69% and Uthai Thani 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 66% | Uthai Thani 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.83 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.077 / defence 1.044 | Uthai Thani attack 0.846 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.211. Data: 55 Port FC games / 56 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 22%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Uthai Thani 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Port FC 1.83 / Uthai Thani 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.077 / def 1.044 | Uthai Thani attack 0.846 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Uthai Thani xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Port FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Port FC 1 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Port FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Port FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Port FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (3 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 2 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Port FC and Uthai Thani in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.26
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.07
Uthai Thani xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
29.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Port FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Port FC and 1.07 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 27W 16D 12L from 55 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 22L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 17W 5D 5L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 8W 4D 15L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.31 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 27W 16D 12L in their last 55 games (1.76 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Port FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Port FC
3
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Uthai Thani?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 67%, Uthai Thani 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Port FC and 59% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Port FC's games and 52% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Port FC's matches and 59% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Port FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.83 xG and Uthai Thani 1.07 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 23% | Uthai Thani 22%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 66%, Uthai Thani 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.