Port FC 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Nong Bua Pitchaya.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Port FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Port FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Port FC, 0 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 57% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 49% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.97 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.121 / defence 1.078 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.911 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.143. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Port FC games / 49 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 20%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Port FC 1.97 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.121 / def 1.078 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.911 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Port FC 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (3 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.12) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.80
25%
4.04
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.12
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
35.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Port FC and 1.12 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 15D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (15W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.35 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 13W 6D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.79 points per game from 24 outings (4W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.16 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Port FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Port FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Port FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Port FC
1
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 50%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Port FC) and 62% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Port FC's games and 71% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Port FC's recent games and 62% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.97 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 20%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 49%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.35 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.