Port FC 3-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Port FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Port FC, 0 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Port FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 50% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 46% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.25 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.897 / defence 1.123 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.140 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.200. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Port FC games / 28 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 29% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 29% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Port FC 1.25 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.897 / def 1.123 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.140 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Port FC 3 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 29% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Port FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (0.90) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
29%
3.42
29%
3.49
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.53
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Port FC and 1.53 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 6D 12L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.29 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 61%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Current Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Port FC's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.77 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Port FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Port FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Port FC
1
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 31%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 85% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Port FC) and 54% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 31% of Port FC's games and 85% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Port FC's recent games and 54% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.25 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.53 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.14 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 29% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 42%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 46%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.29 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.