Port FC 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at PAT Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Port FC against 1.80 for Chiangrai United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Port FC 1W, Chiangrai United 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 55% versus Chiangrai United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Chiangrai United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.86 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.319 / defence 0.979 | Chiangrai United attack 0.941 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.207. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Port FC games / 40 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 22%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Chiangrai United 4.55. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 60% | Chiangrai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Port FC 1.86 / Chiangrai United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.319 / def 0.979 | Chiangrai United attack 0.941 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Port FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Port FC 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Port FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 54% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.32) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.94x) against Port FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.24
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
29.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Port FC and 1.11 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 11D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.62 PPG from 40 outings (18W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Port FC against 1.62 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.75 points per game from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.20 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Chiangrai United in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 15W 11D 14L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 18W 11D 11L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Port FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 45%, Chiangrai United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Port FC) and 40% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Port FC's recent matches and 50% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Port FC's recent games and 40% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.86 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.98 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 54% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 22%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.40 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.