Port FC 1-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Port FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Chiangrai United.

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Full Analysis

PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Port FC (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 7W 1D 2L at PAT Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Chiangrai United (2.00 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Port FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chiangrai United in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Port FC 2W, Chiangrai United 0W, 3D.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 72% and Chiangrai United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 63% | Chiangrai United 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.85 xG and Chiangrai United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.140 / defence 1.117 | Chiangrai United attack 0.853 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.775 / away 1.139. Data: 54 Port FC games / 54 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Chiangrai United 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 60% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.

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