Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-2 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chiangmai United make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangmai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Nakhon Ratchasima FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Chiangmai United (1.40 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W, Chiangmai United 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chiangmai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% versus Chiangmai United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38% | Chiangmai United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Chiangmai United 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.878 / defence 0.915 | Chiangmai United attack 0.730 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.157. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 16 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 30% | Chiangmai United 24%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Chiangmai United 4.17. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29% | Chiangmai United 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 30% | Chiangmai United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 / Chiangmai United 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.878 / def 0.915 | Chiangmai United attack 0.730 / def 1.372 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Chiangmai United xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 2 Chiangmai United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 46% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangmai United 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Chiangmai United (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Chiangmai United's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Chiangmai United's attack (0.73x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.32
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
1.97
0.77
Chiangmai United xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.77 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 6W 4D 6L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangmai United's form line: 1W 3D 12L from 16 games, 0.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 0.69 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Chiangmai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 12L in their last 16 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Chiangmai United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Chiangmai United away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Chiangmai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Chiangmai United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-2 Chiangmai United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chiangmai United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29%, Chiangmai United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 43% (Chiangmai United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 43% of games; Chiangmai United in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Chiangmai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 43% of Chiangmai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 43% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Chiangmai United finished level at 2-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Chiangmai United 0.77 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chiangmai United outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Chiangmai United attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% | Draw 30% | Chiangmai United 24%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%, Chiangmai United 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.