Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khon Kaen United make the trip to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to face Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khon Kaen United have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Nakhon Pathom's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Khon Kaen United's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Pathom lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Pathom 66% versus Khon Kaen United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 64% | Khon Kaen United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.723 / defence 1.239 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.755 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.256. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Nakhon Pathom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Nakhon Pathom games / 50 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 51% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 24%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Khon Kaen United 4.17. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Pathom 60% | Khon Kaen United 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 51% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.78 / Khon Kaen United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.723 / def 1.239 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.755 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Khon Kaen United xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 51% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 1W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nakhon Pathom's attack at 0.72x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.76x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.02
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.95
1.18
Khon Kaen United xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
4%
24.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.18 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 14D 25L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.90 PPG from 50 outings (10W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 0.90 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nakhon Pathom's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (5W 2D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.08 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 11W 14D 25L in their last 50 games (0.94 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 10W 15D 25L in their last 50 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.04 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
1
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, Khon Kaen United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 70%, Khon Kaen United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Nakhon Pathom and 61% for Khon Kaen United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 48% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 61% of Khon Kaen United's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Pathom edge out Khon Kaen United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Khon Kaen United 2-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.72 / defence 1.24 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 51% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 24%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 64%, Khon Kaen United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.94 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.