Khon Kaen United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya make the trip to Khon Kaen Stadium to face Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khon Kaen United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Khon Kaen Stadium, Khon Kaen United have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Khon Kaen United are significantly better at Khon Kaen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Khon Kaen United, 0.80 for Nong Bua Pitchaya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Khon Kaen United lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 45% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 38% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.46 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.735 / defence 0.953 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.938 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.184. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Khon Kaen United games / 58 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 27% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 27%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.70. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 40% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 27% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.46 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.735 / def 0.953 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.938 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Khon Kaen United 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 46% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (3 meetings): Khon Kaen United 1W | Draws 1 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.73x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.94x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.68
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.52
1.06
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.06 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 18D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.12 PPG from 58 outings (17W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Khon Kaen United against 1.12 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 11W 10D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Current Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 16W 18D 24L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.54 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nong Bua Pitchaya won 6-1 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
1
Draws
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 36%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Khon Kaen United) and 64% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 71% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 64% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khon Kaen United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.46 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.06 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 46% | Draw 27% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 27%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 38%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.14 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.