Kanchanaburi 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Kanchanaburi welcome Uthai Thani to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kanchanaburi — All Games: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.86 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kanchanaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kanchanaburi at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kanchanaburi at 0.86 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Kanchanaburi trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Uthai Thani trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 29% versus Uthai Thani 86%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 43% | Uthai Thani 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 2.08 xG and Uthai Thani 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 1.083 / defence 1.035 | Uthai Thani attack 0.954 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.120. Uthai Thani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Kanchanaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Kanchanaburi games / 37 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 58% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 18%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Kanchanaburi (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kanchanaburi at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kanchanaburi 33% | Uthai Thani 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 58% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Kanchanaburi 2.08 / Uthai Thani 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 1.083 / def 1.035 | Uthai Thani attack 0.954 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Kanchanaburi (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Uthai Thani xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 58% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kanchanaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kanchanaburi's attack at 1.08x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Kanchanaburi's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kanchanaburi Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.05
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
3.18
1.11
Uthai Thani xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
2%
45.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.11 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 4L across 7 games — 0.43 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kanchanaburi by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 0.86 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kanchanaburi have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kanchanaburi
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Uthai Thani 2-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Uthai Thani see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 29%, Uthai Thani 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Kanchanaburi) and 43% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Kanchanaburi's games and 86% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 43% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 2.08 xG and Uthai Thani 1.11 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kanchanaburi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Uthai Thani attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 58% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 18%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 43%, Uthai Thani 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kanchanaburi arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.