Chonburi FC 3-2 Trat FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Trat FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Chonburi FC and Trat FC meet at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Current Form

Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Trat FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Trat FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 0 for Trat FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Trat FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 55% and Trat FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 45% | Trat FC 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.93 xG and Trat FC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.821 / defence 0.964 | Trat FC attack 0.709 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.157. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Chonburi FC games / 29 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 63% | Draw 23% | Trat FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Trat FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 50% | Trat FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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