Chonburi FC 5-3 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Police Tero at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Chonburi UTA Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chonburi FC at 1.80 PPG versus Police Tero's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 2 for Police Tero and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Chonburi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 60% versus Police Tero 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 51% | Police Tero 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.40 xG and Police Tero 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.053 / defence 0.830 | Police Tero attack 0.977 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.199. Data: 45 Chonburi FC games / 45 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 46% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Police Tero 3.85. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 50% | Police Tero 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 46% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Chonburi FC 1.40 / Police Tero 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.053 / def 0.830 | Police Tero attack 0.977 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Police Tero xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Chonburi FC 5 - 3 Police Tero.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Police Tero part of?
Chonburi FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 46% chance of winning, Police Tero a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chonburi FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Police Tero?
Record (3 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Police Tero 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Police Tero in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Police Tero (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.58
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.37
0.97
Police Tero xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.97 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 11D 13L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 14W 17D 14L from 45 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.64 PPG, Police Tero on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.13 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 21W 11D 13L in their last 45 games (1.64 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 14W 17D 14L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Police Tero away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
3
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Police Tero have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2024, when Chonburi FC 4-2 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 59%, Police Tero 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 46% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Police Tero in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Chonburi FC's games and 54% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 46% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Police Tero tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Police Tero 5-3 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.40 xG and Police Tero 0.97 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Police Tero outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against Police Tero attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 46% | Draw 28% | Police Tero 26%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 51%, Police Tero 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.64 PPG, Police Tero 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.