Chonburi FC 4-0 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Lampang FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season.
Lampang FC — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Lampang FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lampang FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Chonburi FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lampang FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Lampang FC trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 50% versus Lampang FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 33% | Lampang FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.59 xG and Lampang FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.928 / defence 0.924 | Lampang FC attack 0.906 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.234. Lampang FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Chonburi FC games / 12 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 26% | Lampang FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Lampang FC 4.17. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Lampang FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 26% | Lampang FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Chonburi FC 1.59 / Lampang FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.928 / def 0.924 | Lampang FC attack 0.906 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lampang FC xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC?
Chonburi FC 4 - 0 Lampang FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 50% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chonburi FC and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lampang FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Lampang FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lampang FC's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Lampang FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.82
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.03
Lampang FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.03 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 3D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lampang FC sit at 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lampang FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Lampang FC have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.83 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Defensively: Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Lampang FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Lampang FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Lampang FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Lampang FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lampang FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Lampang FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
0
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Lampang FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Lampang FC 1-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Lampang FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 50%, Lampang FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 67% (Lampang FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lampang FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Lampang FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chonburi FC's games and 67% of Lampang FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 67% of Lampang FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lampang FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Lampang FC 4-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.59 xG and Lampang FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lampang FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Lampang FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 50% | Draw 26% | Lampang FC 24%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 33%, Lampang FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lampang FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lampang FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.