Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to LEO Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 6D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chiangrai United 1.60 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 0 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 38% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 48% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 0.84 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.683 / defence 1.239 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.870 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.114. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Chiangrai United games / 21 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 26% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 78%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 26% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Chiangrai United 0.84 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.683 / def 1.239 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.870 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chiangrai United 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 26% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.36
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.04
1.20
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.20 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United come into this having played 21 games, going 10W 3D 8L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.57 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chiangrai United's home form reads 2W 1D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (0W 6D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.24 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 10W 3D 8L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Chiangrai United's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 0.78 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Chiangrai United
0
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 6, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 22%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chiangrai United) and 33% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 78% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 0.84 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.20 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.68 / defence 1.24 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 26% | Draw 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 44%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 48%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.57 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.