Chiangrai United 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chiangrai United face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Buriram United at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chiangrai United, 2 for Buriram United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 1–4 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 55% versus Buriram United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 50% | Buriram United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.52 xG and Buriram United 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.109 / defence 1.117 | Buriram United attack 1.508 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.151. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.508 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Chiangrai United games / 56 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 48%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Buriram United 2.08. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 80% | Buriram United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Chiangrai United 1.52 / Buriram United 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.109 / def 1.117 | Buriram United attack 1.508 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Buriram United xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Buriram United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Buriram United kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Chiangrai United 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 30% chance of winning, Buriram United a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Chiangrai United and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Buriram United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
30%
3.28
22%
4.55
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
3.46
1.94
Buriram United xG
3.28
30%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
4%
22.79
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.94 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 16D 17L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 40W 9D 7L from 56 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangrai United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 19W 4D 5L from 28 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.04 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 23W 16D 17L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.50 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2025, when Buriram United won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 0, Buriram United have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Buriram United 8-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 54%, Buriram United 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chiangrai United) and 50% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Buriram United in 50%; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 39% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 50% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Buriram United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Chiangrai United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 1-2 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.52 xG and Buriram United 1.94 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Buriram United attack 1.51 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 22% | Buriram United 48%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 50%, Buriram United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.