Buriram United 2-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Buriram United welcome Port FC to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Port FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Buriram United) versus 1.70 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 1, Port FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 29% versus Port FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 38% | Port FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.41 xG and Port FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.130 / defence 0.929 | Port FC attack 0.971 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 1.116. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Buriram United games / 21 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 46% | Draw 27% | Port FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 3.70. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 30% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 46% | Draw 27% | Port FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Buriram United 1.41 / Port FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.130 / def 0.929 | Port FC attack 0.971 / def 1.258 | league avg home 0.991 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Port FC xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Port FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Buriram United 2 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Port FC part of?
Buriram United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 46% chance of winning, Port FC a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Buriram United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 0 | Port FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.13) and Port FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.72
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.42
1.01
Port FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.01 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 14W 3D 4L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 9W 5D 7L from 21 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Port FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 14W 3D 4L in their last 21 games (2.14 PPG), while Port FC have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Port FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.30 PPG; Port FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Port FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Buriram United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 30%, Port FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Buriram United) and 60% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Port FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Buriram United's recent matches and 60% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Buriram United's matches and 60% of Port FC's.
Do Buriram United and Port FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Port FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Port FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Port FC 2-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.41 xG and Port FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.13 / defence 0.93 against Port FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.26, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 46% | Draw 27% | Port FC 27%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 38%, Port FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.52. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.