Buriram United 5-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (88%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Buriram United welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Khao Kradong Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Khao Kradong Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Khao Kradong Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Buriram United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 5–1 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 36% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 3.54 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.748 / defence 0.676 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.880 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.159. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.748 — their λ of 3.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.676 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Buriram United games / 25 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 88% | Draw 8% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.14 | Draw 12.50 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (88%) — a 84pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 88% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 10% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Khao Kradong Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 88% | Draw 8% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 48% | xG Buriram United 3.54 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.748 / def 0.676 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.880 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (88%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.54
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
48%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Khao Kradong Stadium.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Buriram United 5 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Khao Kradong Stadium.
What competition is Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 88% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 4% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (5 meetings): Buriram United 5W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.75x the league average against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 3.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
88%
1.13
8%
12.76
4%
26.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.54
Buriram United xG
Total xG
4.23
0.69
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.13
88%
Home win
12.76
8%
Draw
26.88
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
3%
34.64
Win to Nil
44%
2.25
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.54 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.69 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 88%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 19W 4D 2L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 7W 10D 8L from 25 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.58 PPG from 12 outings (10W 1D 1L).
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 5D 5L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 3.24 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 72%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 19W 4D 2L in their last 25 games (2.44 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.58 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Buriram United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 25%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Buriram United) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Buriram United's recent matches and 58% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Buriram United's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5-0 at Khao Kradong Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.54 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.69 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.75 / defence 0.68 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 88% | Draw 8% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 88%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 60%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 4.08 average — above their attacking norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.