Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Ayutthaya FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Buriram United 1.70 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 2, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 61% versus Ayutthaya FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 67% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.19 xG and Ayutthaya FC 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.165 / defence 1.135 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ayutthaya FC's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Buriram United games / 37 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 22% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Ayutthaya FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Ayutthaya FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 60% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 22% | Draw 23% | Ayutthaya FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Buriram United 1.19 / Ayutthaya FC 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.165 / def 1.135 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Ayutthaya FC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Chang Arena.
Where is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 22% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Buriram United 2W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
22%
4.62
23%
4.32
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.19
2.00
Ayutthaya FC xG
4.62
22%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
34.04
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Buriram United and 2.00 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 26W 5D 5L from 36 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 15L across 36 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ayutthaya FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 13W 3D 2L from 18 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 9W 5D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 26W 5D 5L in their last 36 games (2.31 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.33 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Buriram United 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 61%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Buriram United) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Buriram United's games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Buriram United's recent games and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.