Yverdon Sport 1-0 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yverdon Sport have collected 1.50 PPG across 8 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Municipal, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Yverdon Sport register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FC ST. Gallen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 88% and FC ST. Gallen 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 62% | FC ST. Gallen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.71 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.234 / defence 1.207 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.881 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.309. Data: 8 Yverdon Sport games / 44 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 28%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | FC ST. Gallen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Yverdon Sport at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 100% | FC ST. Gallen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.71 / FC ST. Gallen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.234 / def 1.207 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.881 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC ST. Gallen xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Yverdon Sport 1 - 0 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 42% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.88x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 8/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.35
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.10
1.39
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.39 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yverdon Sport's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC ST. Gallen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 1L across 8 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.88 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yverdon Sport have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC ST. Gallen's away record stands at 0W 3D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.33 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
2
Draws
2
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Yverdon Sport, 100% for FC ST. Gallen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Yverdon Sport) and 0% (FC ST. Gallen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 0% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Yverdon Sport edge out FC ST. Gallen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC ST. Gallen 1-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.71 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.39 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 / defence 1.21 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 8/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 30% | FC ST. Gallen 28%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 62%, FC ST. Gallen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.50 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.