FC Vaduz 3-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Vaduz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Vaduz vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Rheinpark Stadion to face FC Vaduz in Super League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
FC Vaduz (all games): 1W 0D 5L across 6 Super League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Vaduz have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lausanne have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for FC Vaduz against 0.60 for Lausanne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
FC Vaduz — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Vaduz 100% and Lausanne 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Vaduz 100% | Lausanne 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Vaduz 1.63 xG and Lausanne 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Vaduz attack 1.224 / defence 1.309 | Lausanne attack 0.619 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.859 / away 1.698. Lausanne's defence strength of 0.717 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 FC Vaduz games / 39 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Vaduz 43% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Vaduz 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Lausanne 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Vaduz at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Vaduz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Vaduz 100% | Lausanne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Vaduz vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rheinpark Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Vaduz 43% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Vaduz 1.63 / Lausanne 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Vaduz attack 1.224 / def 1.309 | Lausanne attack 0.619 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.859 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Vaduz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC Vaduz xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lausanne xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Vaduz vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Vaduz vs Lausanne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Rheinpark Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Vaduz vs Lausanne?
FC Vaduz 3 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Vaduz vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Rheinpark Stadion.
What competition is FC Vaduz vs Lausanne part of?
FC Vaduz vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Vaduz vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Vaduz a 43% chance of winning, Lausanne a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Vaduz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Vaduz vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Vaduz and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Vaduz vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Vaduz and Lausanne in?
FC Vaduz (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Vaduz's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.62x) against FC Vaduz's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Vaduz Win
43%
2.31
25%
4.05
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FC Vaduz xG
Total xG
3.01
1.38
Lausanne xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Vaduz vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Vaduz and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 1.38 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Vaduz vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Vaduz come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 0D 5L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Vaduz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lausanne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of FC Vaduz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Vaduz are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Vaduz
Early Season
Lausanne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Vaduz and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Vaduz have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have FC Vaduz or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Vaduz have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Lausanne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC Vaduz
0
Draws
0
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and Lausanne?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Vaduz have won 1, Lausanne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Vaduz and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when FC Vaduz 3-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Vaduz and Lausanne?
FC Vaduz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Lausanne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC Vaduz, 50% for Lausanne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Vaduz and 33% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 33%; Lausanne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Vaduz home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Vaduz play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Vaduz's games and 50% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Vaduz vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Vaduz's matches and 33% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Vaduz and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Vaduz have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Vaduz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Vaduz beat Lausanne 3-1 at Rheinpark Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Vaduz 1.63 xG and Lausanne 1.38 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Vaduz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Vaduz attack 1.22 / defence 1.31 against Lausanne attack 0.62 / defence 0.72, drawn from 6/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Vaduz 43% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 32%, with FC Vaduz to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Vaduz 100%, Lausanne 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Vaduz's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lausanne arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with FC Vaduz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Vaduz scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Lausanne shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.