FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Championship Group - 35 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 6W 2D 2L at Kybunpark — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Sion — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 1.80 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC ST. Gallen have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 9 past contests while FC Sion have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Sion trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 68% and FC Sion 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 57% | FC Sion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.39 xG and FC Sion 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.994 / defence 0.891 | FC Sion attack 1.087 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.428. Data: 66 FC ST. Gallen games / 66 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 35% | Draw 30% | FC Sion 35%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | FC Sion 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Sion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Championship Group - 35 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 35% | Draw 30% | FC Sion 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.39 / FC Sion 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.994 / def 0.891 | FC Sion attack 1.087 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Sion xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 3 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Championship Group - 35 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 35% chance of winning, FC Sion a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
Record (9 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 4W | Draws 4 | FC Sion 1W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. FC Sion (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.99x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.30
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.77
1.38
FC Sion xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.38 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 31W 22D 19L from 72 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 25W 24D 23L across 72 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.60 PPG, FC Sion on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 19W 8D 8L from 35 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 8W 10D 17L across 35 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.39 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 31W 22D 19L in their last 72 games (1.60 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.86 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 63%, FC Sion 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (FC ST. Gallen) and 49% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FC Sion in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 57% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 49% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Sion run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC ST. Gallen 0-3 at Kybunpark, Championship Group - 35, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.39 xG and FC Sion 1.38 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Sion outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against FC Sion attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 35% | Draw 30% | FC Sion 35%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual FC Sion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 57%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.60 PPG, FC Sion 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.