Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Varbergs BoIS FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Varbergs BoIS FC face Helsingborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg meet at Påskbergsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 October 2026 at 17:05 UTC.
Current Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Påskbergsvallen: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Påskbergsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Helsingborg (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Varbergs BoIS FC's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Helsingborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Varbergs BoIS FC 5W, Helsingborg 3W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Varbergs BoIS FC 68% and Helsingborg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 61% | Helsingborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.85 xG and Helsingborg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.118 / defence 1.028 | Helsingborg attack 0.880 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.315. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 56 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 51% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 23%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 4.35. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Helsingborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Påskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 51% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.85 / Helsingborg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.118 / def 1.028 | Helsingborg attack 0.880 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Helsingborg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg kicked off at 17:05 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Påskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Påskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 51% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg?
Record (9 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 5W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 3W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.88x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.91
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.19
Helsingborg xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
4%
27.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.19 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 24W 16D 16L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 19W 14D 23L from 56 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.27 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (15W 6D 7L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 9W 6D 13L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.39 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 24W 16D 16L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Helsingborg away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
2
Draws
3
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, Helsingborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 61%, Helsingborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 54% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 54% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 54% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Varbergs BoIS FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Påskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 27, as Varbergs BoIS FC and Helsingborg drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.85 xG and Helsingborg 1.19 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Helsingborg attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 51% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 23%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 61%, Helsingborg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.57 PPG, Helsingborg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.