Sandviken 2-5 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandviken and IK brage meet at Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken at Jernvallen this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
IK brage (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sandviken's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sandviken, 1 for IK brage and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with Sandviken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 54% versus IK brage 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 63% | IK brage 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.38 xG and IK brage 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.931 / defence 1.045 | IK brage attack 1.146 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.296. Data: 46 Sandviken games / 46 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | IK brage 41%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandviken (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandviken 50% | IK brage 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | IK brage 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Sandviken 1.38 / IK brage 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.931 / def 1.045 | IK brage attack 1.146 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: IK brage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.55
IK brage xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs IK brage kick off?
Sandviken vs IK brage kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs IK brage?
Sandviken 2 - 5 IK brage.
Where is Sandviken vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs IK brage part of?
Sandviken vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 33% chance of winning, IK brage a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sandviken and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): Sandviken 2W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Sandviken and IK brage in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. IK brage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.93x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.15x) against Sandviken's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.88
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.93
1.55
IK brage xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
7%
14.18
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sandviken and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.55 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandviken come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 10D 17L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (15W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Sandviken against 1.30 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandviken's home form reads 13W 3D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.30 points per game from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandviken are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and IK brage in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while IK brage have gone 15W 15D 16L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or IK brage away?
Sandviken's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.83 PPG; IK brage away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Sandviken or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, IK brage in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 14 June 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 2-5 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sandviken
0
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and IK brage?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, IK brage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Sandviken 3-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and IK brage?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 48%, IK brage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sandviken) and 35% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; IK brage in 30%; Sandviken have failed to score in 26% of games; IK brage in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sandviken's recent matches and 48% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Sandviken's recent games and 35% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and IK brage tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IK brage in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sandviken.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Sandviken 2-5 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.38 xG and IK brage 1.55 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.55 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against IK brage attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 33% | Draw 26% | IK brage 41%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, IK brage 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.46 PPG, IK brage 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.