Ostersunds FK 3-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Ostersunds FK welcome IFK Varnamo to Jamtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Jamtkraft Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. IFK Varnamo haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.50 (IFK Varnamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
IFK Varnamo trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 44% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | IFK Varnamo 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.97 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.950 / defence 0.997 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.689 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.246. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Ostersunds FK games / 4 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 64% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 16%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Varnamo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 60% | IFK Varnamo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 64% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.97 / IFK Varnamo 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.950 / def 0.997 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.689 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
IFK Varnamo xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 64% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.95) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.77
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.83
0.86
IFK Varnamo xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
46.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.86 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 11W 9D 12L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. IFK Varnamo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.31 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 7D 4L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.75 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
0
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 69%, IFK Varnamo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Ostersunds FK) and 31% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 38%; IFK Varnamo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Ostersunds FK's games and 44% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 31% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out IFK Varnamo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat IFK Varnamo 3-2 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.97 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.86 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.69 / defence 1.33, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 64% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 16%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, IFK Varnamo 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.31 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.