Oddevold 4-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oddevold host Orebro SK at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 May 2026 at 17:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 4W 3D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Oddevold) versus 1.40 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Oddevold register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oddevold, 0 for Orebro SK and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Oddevold in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 57% and Orebro SK 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 57% | Orebro SK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.85 xG and Orebro SK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.894 / defence 1.094 | Orebro SK attack 0.721 / defence 0.642. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.443. Orebro SK's defence strength of 0.642 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Oddevold games / 37 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 27% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 42%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Orebro SK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Oddevold 60% | Orebro SK 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 18 May 2026, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 27% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Oddevold 0.85 / Orebro SK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.894 / def 1.094 | Orebro SK attack 0.721 / def 0.642 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Orebro SK xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Orebro SK kick off?
Oddevold vs Orebro SK kicked off at 17:05 on Monday 18 May 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Oddevold 4 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Oddevold vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Orebro SK part of?
Oddevold vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 27% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Oddevold and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
Record (4 meetings): Oddevold 1W | Draws 3 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are Oddevold and Orebro SK in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.89x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
27%
3.68
31%
3.28
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Oddevold xG
Total xG
1.99
1.14
Orebro SK xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.14 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oddevold come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 21D 18L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.07 PPG from 60 outings (15W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.40 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Oddevold's home form reads 10W 10D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.60 points per game from 30 outings (3W 9D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oddevold come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 21W 21D 18L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Orebro SK away?
Oddevold's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.33 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2026, when Oddevold won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oddevold
4
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Orebro SK?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Oddevold at 63%, Orebro SK at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Oddevold and 60% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Oddevold's games and 73% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Oddevold's matches and 60% of Orebro SK's.
Do Oddevold and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oddevold run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat Orebro SK 4-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.85 xG and Orebro SK 1.14 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Oddevold beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Orebro SK attack 0.72 / defence 0.64, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 27% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 42%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Oddevold win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 57%, Orebro SK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.40 PPG, Orebro SK 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.