Oddevold 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rimnersvallen plays host to Oddevold versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oddevold have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Oddevold, 1.20 for Landskrona BoIS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Landskrona BoIS hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Landskrona BoIS have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 57% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 57% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.927 / defence 1.161 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.005 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.294. Data: 35 Oddevold games / 35 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 33% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 42%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Oddevold 60% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 33% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Oddevold 1.30 / Landskrona BoIS 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.927 / def 1.161 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.005 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Landskrona BoIS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS?
Oddevold 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 33% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 3W.
What form are Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.00x) against Oddevold's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
33%
3.05
25%
3.99
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.81
1.51
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.51 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oddevold's recent record stands at 21W 21D 18L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 21L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Oddevold against 1.45 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 10W 10D 10L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 11W 5D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oddevold are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.38 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 21W 21D 18L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Oddevold's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.33 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Oddevold
3
Draws
3
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 63%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Oddevold and 57% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Oddevold's games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Oddevold's matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 1-1 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 33% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 42%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 57%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oddevold 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.