Helsingborg 1-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Helsingborg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Orgryte IS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Orgryte IS's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helsingborg 1.40 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Helsingborg, 1 for Orgryte IS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 48% versus Orgryte IS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 48% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.26 xG and Orgryte IS 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.982 / defence 0.915 | Orgryte IS attack 1.015 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Data: 59 Helsingborg games / 59 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 31%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Orgryte IS 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Helsingborg dominate the H2H record, yet Orgryte IS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 30% | Orgryte IS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 39% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Helsingborg 1.26 / Orgryte IS 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.982 / def 0.915 | Orgryte IS attack 1.015 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Orgryte IS xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Helsingborg 1 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 39% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Helsingborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (5 meetings): Helsingborg 3W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.98x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.36
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.36
1.09
Orgryte IS xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.09 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 59 games, going 21W 17D 21L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.31 PPG from 59 outings (21W 14D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.36 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 11W 9D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.24 points per game from 29 outings (10W 6D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.37 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 21L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.45 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2021, when Helsingborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Helsingborg
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Orgryte IS?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 45%, Orgryte IS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Helsingborg) and 41% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 34% of games; Orgryte IS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Helsingborg's recent games and 41% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Helsingborg 1-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.26 xG and Orgryte IS 1.09 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Orgryte IS attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 39% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 31%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 48%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.36 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.