Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IK brage make the trip to Olympia to face Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 4W 4D 2L at Olympia — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IK brage (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Helsingborg, 2 for IK brage and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 43% versus IK brage 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | IK brage 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.61 xG and IK brage 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.238 / defence 0.956 | IK brage attack 1.011 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.271. Data: 34 Helsingborg games / 34 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 46% | Draw 25% | IK brage 29%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | IK brage 3.45. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 50% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 46% | Draw 25% | IK brage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Helsingborg 1.61 / IK brage 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.238 / def 0.956 | IK brage attack 1.011 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IK brage xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IK brage kick off?
Helsingborg vs IK brage kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Helsingborg 2 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Helsingborg vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IK brage part of?
Helsingborg vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 46% chance of winning, IK brage a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Helsingborg and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Record (8 meetings): Helsingborg 4W | Draws 2 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.24x the league average against IK brage's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (1.01x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.07
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.84
1.23
IK brage xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.23 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 16D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (22W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.37 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Helsingborg's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.37 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IK brage in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IK brage away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.43 PPG; IK brage away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IK brage in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 5, IK brage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IK brage?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 43% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 43% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IK brage tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IK brage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IK brage 2-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.61 xG and IK brage 1.23 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IK brage landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against IK brage attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 46% | Draw 25% | IK brage 29%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, IK brage 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.