Helsingborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 21 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Helsingborg, 1.50 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Helsingborg have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, GIF Sundsvall in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Helsingborg have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with GIF Sundsvall managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 3–1 with Helsingborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Helsingborg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 45% versus GIF Sundsvall 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 45% | GIF Sundsvall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.917 / defence 0.895 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.779 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.180. Data: 56 Helsingborg games / 56 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 23%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | GIF Sundsvall 4.35. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 30% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Helsingborg 1.26 / GIF Sundsvall 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.917 / def 0.895 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.779 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.82
GIF Sundsvall xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg 2 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 45% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (6 meetings): Helsingborg 4W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.92) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.78x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
45%
2.20
31%
3.19
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.08
0.82
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.82 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 20W 16D 20L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 16W 14D 26L from 56 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.11 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 6D 16L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.05 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 20W 16D 20L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 16W 14D 26L in their last 56 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.39 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 10 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 6, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 43%, GIF Sundsvall 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Helsingborg) and 39% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 36% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 32% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Helsingborg's recent games and 39% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out GIF Sundsvall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.82 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 45% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 23%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 45%, GIF Sundsvall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.36 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.