GIF Sundsvall 0-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Kalmar FF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 2W 8D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kalmar FF are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 51% versus Kalmar FF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 51% | Kalmar FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.99 xG and Kalmar FF 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.916 / defence 1.086 | Kalmar FF attack 0.863 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.175. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 GIF Sundsvall games / 27 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 38%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Kalmar FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Kalmar FF 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.99 / Kalmar FF 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.916 / def 1.086 | Kalmar FF attack 0.863 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Kalmar FF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 32% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.92x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
32%
3.15
31%
3.26
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.09
1.10
Kalmar FF xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.10 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 12D 24L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 24W 16D 17L from 57 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.32 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 8W 13D 7L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.49 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 24W 16D 17L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Kalmar FF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.36 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kalmar FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Kalmar FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 0-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 61%, Kalmar FF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 54% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 64% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 54% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat GIF Sundsvall 0-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.99 xG and Kalmar FF 1.10 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Kalmar FF attack 0.86 / defence 0.68, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 31% | Kalmar FF 38%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 51%, Kalmar FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.32 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.