Falkenbergs FF 4-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to face Falkenbergs FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Falkenbergs FF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Falkenbergs FF, 1.80 for Landskrona BoIS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Landskrona BoIS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Falkenbergs FF 3W, Landskrona BoIS 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Falkenbergs FF half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 62% and Landskrona BoIS 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 66% | Landskrona BoIS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.086 / defence 0.875 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.166 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.341. Data: 56 Falkenbergs FF games / 56 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 34% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 36%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Landskrona BoIS 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 34% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.33 / Landskrona BoIS 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.086 / def 0.875 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.166 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Landskrona BoIS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Falkenbergs FF 4 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 34% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 3W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (1.17x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
34%
2.91
29%
3.40
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.69
1.37
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.37 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Falkenbergs FF come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 16D 14L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.50 PPG from 56 outings (23W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Falkenbergs FF against 1.50 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Falkenbergs FF's home form reads 15W 9D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.46 points per game from 28 outings (12W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Falkenbergs FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.45 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.93 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Falkenbergs FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 0-3 on 26 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 6 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 4-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 50%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Falkenbergs FF) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Falkenbergs FF's recent matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat Landskrona BoIS 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Landskrona BoIS 4-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.37 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.17 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 34% | Draw 29% | Landskrona BoIS 36%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Falkenbergs FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 66%, Landskrona BoIS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.68 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Falkenbergs FF win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.