Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC host Djurgardens IF at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 5 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record at Varberg Energi Arena: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Allsvenskan appearances (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Varberg Energi Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 3W 0D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Varbergs BoIS FC) versus 1.70 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 50% versus Djurgardens IF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | Djurgardens IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.041 / defence 1.103 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.679 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.238. Data: 12 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 12 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 39% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Djurgardens IF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 67% | Djurgardens IF 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 39% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 / Djurgardens IF 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.041 / def 1.103 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.679 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 5 August 2020 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.04) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.01
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Djurgardens IF xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.93 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Varbergs BoIS FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 4W 4D 4L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.33 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Varbergs BoIS FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.42 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 67%, Djurgardens IF 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 33% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%; Djurgardens IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 17% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 33% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 39% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 28%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 50%, Djurgardens IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.33 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.