Sirius 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sirius at 1.20 PPG versus AIK Stockholm's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sirius, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 46% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 50% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.086 / defence 1.297 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.904 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.244. Data: 46 Sirius games / 46 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 37%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | AIK Stockholm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 31 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 38% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Sirius 1.47 / AIK Stockholm 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.086 / def 1.297 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.904 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Sirius (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.46
AIK Stockholm xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 July 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 38% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
Record (4 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.93
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.93
1.46
AIK Stockholm xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sirius and 1.46 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 13W 13D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 17W 13D 16L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.13 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (8W 3D 12L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 5D 10L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.28 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.17 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 48%, AIK Stockholm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sirius) and 56% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 26% of games; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sirius's recent matches and 61% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sirius's recent games and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.46 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.09 / defence 1.30 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 38% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 37%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 50%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.13 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.