IF Elfsborg 1-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Elfsborg face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 7W 2D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Sirius have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. IF Elfsborg's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: IF Elfsborg 3W, Sirius 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 4–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 53% versus Sirius 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Sirius 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.91 xG and Sirius 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.330 / defence 0.776 | Sirius attack 0.981 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.245. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 IF Elfsborg games / 47 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 60% | Draw 22% | Sirius 18%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Sirius 5.56. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 40% | Sirius 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 60% | Draw 22% | Sirius 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.91 / Sirius 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.330 / def 0.776 | Sirius attack 0.981 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sirius xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 60% chance of winning, Sirius a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
Record (4 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.33) and Sirius's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.98x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.56
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.85
0.95
Sirius xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
36.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.95 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 25W 13D 9L from 47 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 21L across 47 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 13W 7D 3L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 5W 10D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 13D 9L in their last 47 games (1.87 PPG), while Sirius have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Sirius away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sirius in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 56%, Sirius 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (IF Elfsborg) and 52% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sirius in 30%; Sirius in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 44% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 52% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sirius in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Sirius 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.91 xG and Sirius 0.95 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.33 / defence 0.78 against Sirius attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 60% | Draw 22% | Sirius 18%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Sirius 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.