Malmo FF 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eleda Stadion plays host to Malmo FF versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Eleda Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hammarby FF are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Malmo FF 3W, Hammarby FF 3W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 52% versus Hammarby FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 54% | Hammarby FF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.12 xG and Hammarby FF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.033 / defence 1.012 | Hammarby FF attack 1.007 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.326. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Malmo FF games / 56 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 31% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 42%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 50% | Hammarby FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 31% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Malmo FF 1.12 / Hammarby FF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.033 / def 1.012 | Hammarby FF attack 1.007 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Malmo FF 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 31% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Malmo FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (9 meetings): Malmo FF 3W | Draws 3 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.01x) against Malmo FF's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
31%
3.25
27%
3.67
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.47
1.35
Hammarby FF xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.35 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 25W 14D 17L from 56 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 35W 9D 12L across 56 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Malmo FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 12W 5D 11L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 13W 7D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Malmo FF are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.04 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Hammarby FF in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 35W 9D 12L in their last 56 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 1.46 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Malmo FF
3
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Malmo FF 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 61%, Hammarby FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Malmo FF) and 43% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Malmo FF's games and 54% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Malmo FF's matches and 43% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Malmo FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Malmo FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Malmo FF 1-2 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.12 xG and Hammarby FF 1.35 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Hammarby FF attack 1.01 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 31% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 42%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 54%, Hammarby FF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.59. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.