IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 2W 5D 3L at Finnvedsvallen — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mjallby AIF — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IFK Varnamo, 3 for Mjallby AIF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 0–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 57% versus Mjallby AIF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.83 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.942 / defence 1.263 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.145 / defence 0.605. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.385. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.605 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 IFK Varnamo games / 58 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 13% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 63%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 7.69 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 80% | Mjallby AIF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 13% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.83 / Mjallby AIF 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.942 / def 1.263 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.145 / def 0.605 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 5 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 13% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 63% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Record (7 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
13%
7.58
24%
4.23
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.83
2.00
Mjallby AIF xG
7.58
13%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
56.13
28%
3.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 2.00 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 17D 30L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 2.05 PPG from 58 outings (35W 14D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 5W 9D 15L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.83 points per game from 29 outings (16W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.64 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 11W 17D 30L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 35W 14D 9L in their last 58 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.83 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.83 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 62%, Mjallby AIF 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IFK Varnamo) and 55% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IFK Varnamo's games and 55% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 55% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 0-5 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.83 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.00 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 2.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.60, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 13% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 63%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.