IFK Varnamo 1-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Varnamo welcome Gais to Borås Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off is Monday 8 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, IFK Varnamo have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Gais 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2021, ended IFK Varnamo 2–1 Gais — a IFK Varnamo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.58 xG and Gais 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.947 / defence 0.930 | Gais attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.356. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 31 games and Gais's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 25% | Gais 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.04 | Draw 3.98 | Gais 3.87. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (IFK Varnamo 31 games, Gais 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 2 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 25% | Gais 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.58 / Gais 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.947 / def 0.930 | Gais attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gais xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Gais FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Gais kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Gais kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 8 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Gais.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Gais part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Gais is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 49% chance of winning, Gais a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Gais will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Varnamo vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.95) and Gais's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 31 games and Gais's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.98
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.65
1.07
Gais xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Gais Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.07 for Gais, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Gais (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
3
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Gais H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Gais have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Gais last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: IFK Varnamo 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.58 xG and Gais 1.07 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gais outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 25% | Gais 26%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.