Gais 0-4 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Gais welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.40 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.016 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.436. Data: 0 Gais games / 30 IF Brommapojkarna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gais 32% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 32% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Gais 1.40 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.016 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Gais 0 - 4 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 32% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Gais and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. IF Brommapojkarna away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.85) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
32%
3.12
24%
4.22
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gais xG
Total xG
3.08
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
6%
16.68
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Gais and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gais and 1.68 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Gais
2
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Gais 0-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.40 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gais fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 32% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.